Planning the Energy Years
- H.A. Nedom (Petroleum Management Worldwide)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- Journal of Petroleum Technology
- Publication Date
- January 1971
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 13 - 15
- 1971. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 4.1.5 Processing Equipment, 4.1.2 Separation and Treating, 1.6 Drilling Operations, 7.4.3 Market analysis /supply and demand forecasting/pricing
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Future worldwide petroleum opportunities are equal to or better than any known in the past. However, the rules of the game are changing, and the opportunities will be seized by those who can adjust rapidly.
In a world of mushrooming energy needs, this country and its petroleum industry are in crucial times. The international balance of supply and demand and our country's energy shortage call for critical decisions on a national level that will in turn guide the future actions of companies and individuals. This paper examines the guideposts of long-range planning 20 years ahead, and in doing so, injects large elements of judgment and conclusion. The complex future is viewed from a worldwide perspective and from that of the U. S., the petroleum industry, and an average oil company.
Energy consumption is rapidly growing. The present rate will double by 1985, but fortunately the petroleum needed through that period and for years beyond petroleum needed through that period and for years beyond is either on hand or reasonably certain of discovery. Studies of geologically favorable areas around the world and their high potential confirm this conclusion. Those areas of greatest promise are Africa and the Far East, both unexplored relative to their onshore and offshore potential. Discoveries in Nigeria and Indonesia provide samplings of the larger areas that await exploration. Next in future importance is the Middle East, which already holds two-thirds of the known world oil reserve, and where the hydrocarbon potential remains high. Large concessions have yet to potential remains high. Large concessions have yet to be explored by new and improved seismic methods.
North and South America will also contribute significantly. In summary, the world petroleum future is one of large and rising consumption with adequate supply.
The world's large petroleum reserve areas are widely separated from the points of maximum consumption and this dislocation will increase as newer reserves are found in more and more remote places. The North Sea discoveries are welcome exceptions to this worldwide trend. In the future, countries that are large consumers and that are net importers will become even more dependent upon those with excess supply, and will increasingly rely upon large-volume, low-cost, long-distance transportation to bring the petroleum to market. Countries with excess supply, petroleum to market. Countries with excess supply, which even now have a political weapon against energy-short nations such as the U. S. and most countries of Europe, will find that their bargaining positions will improve. However, their influence will positions will improve. However, their influence will be limited by the over-all ample supply, since each country with petroleum to sell will be competing in a worldwide buyer's market. Of great interest on the international scene will be the strategies used by energy-short nations to insure that their future supplies are in friendly hands and available when needed.
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