Barnett Shale Production Outlook
- John Browning (The University of Texas at Austin) | Svetlana Ikonnikova (The University of Texas at Austin) | Gürcan Gülen (The University of Texas at Austin) | Scott Tinker (The University of Texas at Austin)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Economics & Management
- Publication Date
- July 2013
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 89 - 104
- 2013. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 4.6 Natural Gas, 1.6 Drilling Operations, 5.8.2 Shale Gas
- 33 in the last 30 days
- 2,662 since 2007
- Show more detail
- View rights & permissions
|SPE Member Price:||USD 10.00|
|SPE Non-Member Price:||USD 30.00|
We developed a production-outlook model on the basis of an interdisciplinary analysis of production data from more than 15,000 wells and geologic data on the Barnett play. The model is the most granular to date because it incorporates 10 tiers of varying productivity and well economics of average wells by tier; it covers close to 8,000 square-mile blocks across partly drained and undrilled acreage, divided between low-Btu and high-Btu segments, and uses drillwell potential by tier for the total area; and it is unique in its use of production profiles on the basis of transient linear drainage. Drilling pace is adjusted to changes in natural-gas price relative to well economics, historical attrition rates, and logistical constraints. We analyze scenarios and conduct a simulation analysis on the basis of reasonable ranges for natural-gas price, remaining acreage developable in partly drained and undrilled blocks, improvement in technology and well cost performance, and economic limit for shutting in a well. The Barnett is the most exploited shale play in the world; cumulative production to 2012 is 13 Tcf. Our analysis indicates remaining recovery of approximately 2.5 times of cumulative production in the base case, but this is subject to many uncertainties. Base case results are consistent with actual production in 2011 and 2012.
|File Size||2 MB||Number of Pages||16|
Andrews, D. and Zivot, E. 1992. Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the OilPrice Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. J. Bus. Econ. Stat. 10 (3): 251-270. http://www.jstor.org/stable/1391541.
Bruner, K. R. and Smosna, R. 2011. A Comparative Study of the MississippianBarnett Shale, Fort Worth Basin, and Devonian Marcellus Shale, AppalachianBasin. Report No. DOE/NETL-2011/1478, US Department of Energy, National EnergyTechnology Laboratory (April 2011).
Energy Information Administration (EIA) 2012. U.S. Crude Oil, Natural Gas,and Natural Gas Liquids Proved Reserves, 2010.
Fu, Q., Horvath, S., Potter, E., et al. In press. Log-Based Thicknessand Porosity Mapping of the Barnett Shale Play, Fort Worth Basin, Texas: AProxy for Reservoir Quality Assessment. AAPG Bull.
Gülen, G., Browning, J., Ikonnikova, S., et al. In press. BarnettWell Economics. Energy.
Ikonnikova, S., Browning, J., Horvath, S., et al. In press. WellRecovery, Drainage Area, and Future Drillwell Inventory: Empirical Study of theBarnett Shale Gas Play. SPE Res Eval & Eng.
Kaiser, M. J. 2010. Economic Limit of Field Production in Louisiana.Energy 35 (8): 3399-3416. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2010.04.032.
Kaiser, M. J., 2012a. Haynesville Shale Play Economic Analysis. J. Pet.Sci. Eng. 82-83: 75-89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2011.12.029.
Kaiser, M. J. 2012b. Profitability Assessment of Haynesville Shale GasWells. Energy 38 (1): 315-330. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.11.057.
Kaiser, M. J. and Yu, Y. 2011. Haynesville Shale Well Performance andDevelopment Potential. Nat. Resour. Res. 20 (4): 217-229.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11053-011-9147-z.
Kaiser, M. J. and Yu, Y. 2012. A Scenario-Based Hydrocarbon ProductionForecast for Louisiana. Nat. Resour. Res. 21 (1): 143-162.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11053-011-9168-7.
Lake, L. W., Martin, J., Ramsey, J. D., et al. 2012. A Primer on theEconomics of Shale Gas Production: Just How Cheap is Shale Gas? http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2033238.
Madani, H.S. and Holditch, S. 2011. A Methodology to Determine both theTechnically Recoverable Resource and the Economically Recoverable Resource inan Unconventional Gas Play. Paper SPE 141368 presented at the SPE Middle EastOil and Gas Show and Conference, Manama, Bahrain, 25-28 September. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/141368-MS.
Medlock, Kenneth B., Seitlheko, L., Gülen, G., et al. 2012. Panel Analysisof Well Production History in the Barnett Shale. Oral presentation given at the31st Annual USAEE/IAEE North American Conference, Austin, Texas, 4-7November.
National Petroleum Council (NPC). 2007. Unconventional Gas: Topic Paper No.29. Working Document of the NPC Global Oil & Gas Study, http://www.npc.org/study_topic_papers/29-ttg-unconventional-gas.pdf.
Patzek, T. W., Male, F. and Marder, M. In press. Simple Models forGas Production from Hydrofractured Shales. AAPG Bull.
Patzek, T. W. 1992. Surveillance of South Belridge Diatomite. Paper SPE24040 presented at the SPE Western Regional Meeting, Bakersfield, California,30 March-1 April. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/24040-MS.
Techbits. 2006. Refracturing in Low-Permeability Reservoirs, http://www.spe.org/jpt/print/archives/2006/03/JPT2006_03_tech_bits.pdf.
Wattenbarger, R. A., El-Banbi, A. H., Villegas, M. E., et al. 1998. Production Analysis of Linear Flow Into Fractured Tight Gas Wells. Paper SPE39931 presented at the SPE Rocky Mountain Regional/Low-Permeability ReservoirsSymposium, Denver, Colorado, 5-8 April. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/39931-MS.