Impact of Uncertainty in Estimation of Shale-Gas-Reservoir and Completion Properties on EUR Forecast and Optimal Development Planning: A Marcellus Case Study
- Ramkumar Jayakumar (Weatherford) | Rakesh Rai (Weatherford International)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Reservoir Evaluation & Engineering
- Publication Date
- February 2014
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 60 - 73
- 2014.Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 5.8.2 Shale Gas, 3.2.3 Hydraulic Fracturing Design, Implementation and Optimisation, 2.5.2 Fracturing Materials (Fluids, Proppant), 5.5.8 History Matching, 2.5.4 Multistage Fracturing, 7.6.4 Data Mining
- 3 in the last 30 days
- 734 since 2007
- Show more detail
- View rights & permissions
|SPE Member Price:||USD 10.00|
|SPE Non-Member Price:||USD 30.00|
The use of multistage-fractured horizontal wells has made production from shale-gas plays feasible. The production history from these wells is characterized by long linear transient flow. The key reservoir (nature) and completion (nurture) properties that affect flow behavior of the well are permeability, original hydrocarbon in place (OHIP), number of hydraulic fractures, fracture area, and fracture spacing. Understanding the interrelationship between these parameters is critical for optimal development of shale-gas-resource plays. The proposed shale-gas workflow uses a hybrid analytical model. An analytics-based diagnostic process analyzes well performance history, and a numerical model validates the feasible history-match models for representative forecasts. The model results allow the user to capture the range of uncertainty in estimating individual reservoir or completion properties, such as permeability, fracture area, and fracture spacing. The diagnostic process provides the relationship between key factors dictating well performance, such as OHIP, effective fracture area, effective reservoir permeability, effective fracture spacing, and well spacing. In this paper, wells from the Marcellus play in Pennsylvania, USA, are evaluated by use of the proposed shale-gas workflow. Surveillance is an integral part of this workflow. The paper shows how surveillance can be used for resource management and exception management. Along with data mining, the workflow accelerates the learning curve to evaluate the effectiveness of current field practices. The results help with understanding the effectiveness of proppant pumped, the potential number of contributing clusters, and production issues. Continued surveillance reduces the uncertainty surrounding all parameters. This knowledge base can then be used to optimize the asset-development strategy, maximizing the return on investment.
|File Size||2 MB||Number of Pages||14|
Al-Ahmadi, H.A., Almarzooq, A.M. and Wattenbarger, R.A. 2010. Application of Linear Flow Analysis to Shale Gas Wells-Field Cases. Paper SPE 130370 presented at the SPE Unconventional Gas Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 23–25 February. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/130370-MS.
Al-Kobaisi, M., Ozkan, E., Kazemi, H., et al. 2006. Pressure-Transient-Analysis of Horizontal Wells with Transverse, Finite-Conductivity Fractures. Paper SPE 2006-162 presented at the Canadian International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 13–15 June. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/2006-162.
Anderson, D. M., Nobakht, M., Moghadam, S., et al. 2010. Analysis of Production Data from Fractured Shale Gas Wells. Paper SPE 131787 presented at SPE Unconventional Gas Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, 23–25 February. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/131787-MS.
Arevalo-Villagran, J. A., Cinco-Ley, H., Wattenbarger, R.A., et al. 2003. Transient Analysis of Tight Gas Well Performance – More Case Histories. Paper SPE 84476 presented at the SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Denver, Colorado, 5–8 October. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/84476-MS.
Arevalo-Villagran, J. A., Wattenbarger, R. A., Garcia-Hernandez, F., et al. 2003. Some Scenarios for Long-Term Transient Linear Flow in Tight Gas Reservoirs – Field Examples. Paper SPE 2003-218 presented at the Canadian International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 10–12 June. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/2003-218.
Bello, R.O. 2011. Rate Transient Analysis and Investigation of Unit Slopes in Multistage Hydraulically Fractured Tight Carbonate Reservoirs. Paper SPE 147798 presented at the SPE Asia Pacific Oil and Gas Conference and Exhibition, Jakarta, Indonesia, 20–22 September. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/147798-MS.
Brown, M., Ozkan, E., Raghavan, R., et al. 2011. Practical Solutions for Pressure-Transient Responses of Fractured Horizontal Wells in Unconventional Shale Reservoirs. SPE Res Eval & Eng 14 (6): 663–676. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/125043-PA.
Couto, C., Moreira, R.D.R. and Marsili, M.D. 2011. A General Analytical Solution for the Multidimensional Transient Linear Hydraulic Diffusivity Equation in Heterogeneous and Anisotropic Porous Media. Paper SPE 22578 presented at OTC Brazil, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 4–6 October. http://dx.doi.org/10.4043/22578-MS.
Ehlig-Economides, C. A. and Economides, M. J. 1984. Pressure Transient Analysis in an Elongated Linear Flow. Paper SPE 12742 presented at the SPE California Regional Meeting, Long Beach, California, 11–13 April. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/12742-MS.
Ibrahim, M. and Wattenbarger, R.A. 2005. Analysis of Rate Dependence in Transient Linear Flow in Tight Gas Wells. Paper SPE 2005-057 presented at the Canadian International Petroleum Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 7–9 June. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/2005-057.
Ilk, D., Anderson, D. M., Stotts, G. W. J., et al. 2010. Production Data Analysis—Challenges, Pitfalls, Diagnostics. SPE Res Eval & Eng 13 (3): 538–552. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/102048-PA.
Lietard, O. and Spivey, J.P. 2011. Revisiting Pressure Transient Testing of Hydraulically Fractured Wells: A Single, Simple and Exact Analytical Solution Covering Bilinear, Linear, and Transition in Between Flow Regimes. Paper SPE 139508 presented at the SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference, The Woodlands, Texas, 24–26 January. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/139508-MS.
Miller, M.A., Jenkins, C. and Rai, R. 2010. Applying Innovative Production Modeling Techniques to Quantify Fracture Characteristics, Reservoir Properties, and Well Performance in Shale Gas Reservoirs. 2010. Paper SPE 139097 presented at the SPE Eastern Regional Meeting, Morgantown, West Virginia, 12–14 October. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/139097-MS.
Moghadam, S. and Mattar, L. 2011. Pitfalls of Superposition When Analyzing Production Data. Paper SPE 146727 presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 15–17 November. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/146727-MS.
Nobakht, M. and Clarkson, C.R. 2012. Hybrid Forecasting Methods for Multi-Fractured Horizontal Wells: EUR Sensitivities. Paper SPE 153220 presented at the SPE Middle East Unconventional Gas Conference and Exhibition, Abu Dhabi, UAE, 23–25 January. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/153220-MS.
Russell, D. G. and Truitt, N. E. 1964. Transient Pressure Behavior in Vertically Fractured Reservoirs. J. Pet. Tech. 16 (10): 1159–1170. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/967-PA.
Samandarli, O., Al-Ahmadi, H.A., and Wattenbarger, R.A. 2011. A Semi-Analytic Method for History Matching Fractures Shale Gas Reservoirs. Paper SPE 144583 presented at the SPE Western North American Region Meeting, Anchorage, Alaska, 7–11 May. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/144583-MS.
Wattenbarger, R.A., El-Banbi, A.H., Villegas, M.E., et al. 1998. Production Analysis of Linear Flow Into Fractured Tight Gas Wells. Paper SPE 39931 presented at Rocky Mountain Regional/Low-Permeability Reservoirs Symposium, Denver, Colorado, 5–8 April. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/39931-MS.
Williams-Kovacs, J. D. and Clarkson, C.R. 2011. Using Stochastic Simulation to Quantify Risk and Uncertainty in Shale Gas Prospecting and Development. Paper SPE 148867 presented at the Canadian Unconventional Resources Conference, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 15–17 November. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/148867-MS.