Probabilistic Modeling for Decision Support in Integrated Operations
- Martin Giese (University of Oslo) | Reidar B. Bratvold (University of Stavanger)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Economics & Management
- Publication Date
- July 2011
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 173 - 185
- 2011. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 7.2.3 Decision-making Processes, 1.10.1 Drill string components and drilling tools (tubulars, jars, subs, stabilisers, reamers, etc), 1.11.2 Drilling Fluid Selection and Formulation (Chemistry, Properties), 1.6 Drilling Operations
- operational decisions, decision support, drilling operations
- 1 in the last 30 days
- 824 since 2007
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We report work carried out within the on collaborative decision support for integrated operations (CODIO) project. As one part of this project, we have designed a system to provide assistance in operational decisions based on real-time sensor readings in a typical scenario: While drilling close to the transition to a high-pressure formation, a gas influx is observed. The drilling team needs to decide whether to circulate, increase the mud weight, plug back, or set a casing.
After a brief description of the technology we used to model decision problems [Bayesian networks, influence diagrams (IDs)], we describe our case study and discuss the particular challenge of applying decision analysis to the kind of operational decision that is central to the case study. We then proceed to apply the method of decision analysis to our case study. We discuss how the resulting ID was tested using a simulation and discuss challenges in applying the technology, as well as lessons learned while under way. We also give a list of desiderata to establish better decision-making practices in the petroleum industry.
|File Size||1 MB||Number of Pages||13|
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