Production Metrics To Predict Long-Term Performance of Unconventional Wells
- Chris Carpenter (JPT Technology Editor)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- Journal of Petroleum Technology
- Publication Date
- July 2017
- Document Type
- Journal Paper
- 73 - 75
- 2017. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 1 in the last 30 days
- 87 since 2007
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This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 184817, “Optimal Production Metric To Predict Unconventional Wells’ Long-Term Performance,” by Edward Ifejika, Bertrand De Cumont, and Nommie Kashani, Total, prepared for the 2017 SPE Hydraulic Fracturing Technology Conference and Exhibition, The Woodlands, Texas, USA, 24–26 January. The paper has not been peer reviewed.
In unconventional plays, comparing the effect of different completion designs or well-management strategies on well performance remains a challenge because of the relatively brief production history and lack of long-term field analogs of these plays. This study examines various production durations as potential candidates for reliable indicators of well quality. The results show that predictions of midterm performance begin to be reliable only near 180 days of cumulative well production. This study used actual daily production data to confirm that 30- and 90-day initial production are not correlated strongly to well actual performance in the 2-year range.
It has been a common practice to quantify performance of unconventional wells through their 30-day initial production for purposes of information for the media and in investor presentations. The authors’ experience has been that the 30-day initial production often does not necessarily quantify a well’s potential. The goal of this study is to compare various production-duration periods to identify which can most accurately forecast longer-term production. This study tests different production durations by use of actual well-production history from the Utica play in Ohio, USA. The term “IP-nnn” in the paper refers to a specific number of days of nonzero production for the well; for example, “wellhead gas IP-30” refers to the total volume of the first 30 days of nonzero wellhead gas production for the well, whereas “condensate IP-90” refers to the total volume of the first 90 days of nonzero condensate production for the well.
Study Description and Assumptions
A data set of 676 unconventional producing wells for the Utica play was used to conduct this study. The authors began the study with several assumptions based on anecdotal observations from the early days of production in the play, with the goal of eventually using this data set to test the accuracy of their assumptions, which were as follows:
- 30-day wellhead gas production is a poor predictor of long-term gas production.
- 90-day wellhead gas production is a more-accurate predictor of long-term production than is 30-day gas production.
- 180-day gas production is not significantly better than 90-day gas production as a predictor of long-term gas.
- 360-day gas production and 720-day gas production are equivalent as gas-production-quality indicators.
- Correlations of 30-, 90-, and 180-day condensate production to long-term condensate production are significantly poorer than the equivalent for gas production.
|File Size||2 MB||Number of Pages||3|