Uncertainty and Value in Integrated Asset Modelling
- Alan Crerar (Ingen-Ideas Ltd) | Andrew Laurence Robertson (Ingen-Ideas Ltd)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- Offshore Europe, 6-9 September, Aberdeen, United Kingdom
- Publication Date
- Document Type
- Conference Paper
- 2005. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 4.3 Flow Assurance, 5.2.1 Phase Behavior and PVT Measurements, 4.2 Pipelines, Flowlines and Risers, 5.6.9 Production Forecasting, 7.1.7 Intergated Asset Management, 5.1.7 Seismic Processing and Interpretation, 5.5.8 History Matching, 5.5 Reservoir Simulation, 4.1.5 Processing Equipment, 3.3.6 Integrated Modeling, 3.1.6 Gas Lift, 4.1.2 Separation and Treating, 4.5 Offshore Facilities and Subsea Systems, 5.5.11 Formation Testing (e.g., Wireline, LWD), 1.6 Drilling Operations, 5.1.5 Geologic Modeling, 5.4.2 Gas Injection Methods, 5.8.8 Gas-condensate reservoirs, 3.1 Artificial Lift Systems, 1.6.9 Coring, Fishing, 4.3.4 Scale, 5.1 Reservoir Characterisation, 6.5.2 Water use, produced water discharge and disposal
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The paper will illustrate the application of asset-scale modelling and the benefits thereof, including an analysis of the effect of quantifiable risk on development strategy selection.
While integration asset modelling (IAM) is not of itself a novel topic, practical applications of the technique applied from sub-surface calculations through to commercial/financial analysis are nevertheless uncommon and those including a rigorous treatment of uncertainty still rarer. Included in the paper will be a brief analysis of both the benefits of IAM and suggestions on why it is perhaps not more widely applied.
The main body of the paper, however, will cover two case studies - descriptions of projects carried out using the RAVE (Risk And Value Engineering) IAM software. The first case study will be based upon the Brae asset, operated by Marathon Oil UK. The Brae asset is complex, both technically and commercially, and represents a huge infrastructural investment in the CNS. The paper will illustrate the means by which IAM was used to "see through" this complexity to assist in the forward strategic planning of the asset.
The second case study will describe the development of a reserve as a third party tie back to an existing host platform. Use of the approach in this case allowed rapid, value-based analysis of competing development alternatives (such as host selection, artificial lift techniques and well count) including the sub-surface uncertainty inherent in pre-FEED development studies.
From the case studies presented here and numerous similar projects, the authors will present the conclusions that risk-inclusive integrated asset modelling is both feasible and valuable in marginal and mature environments.
Modelling and simulation are firmly embedded within the core business processes of upstream oil and gas assets. At every stage of asset development and production, simulation techniques play a vital role in supporting strategic, tactical and operational decisions. It is estimated that the hydrocarbon production industry spends in excess of $2billion annually on hardware, software and associated services, a figure that neglects spending on networks and communications infrastructure. There is a perception though, and a number of published surveys supporting it1, that the industry does not get particularly good value for this level of commitment. Some of the problems associated with IT have been historical; problems with large scale projects, interoperability and early obsolescence, for example. Other more fundamental problems, or opportunities, have arisen more recently.
Working practices continue to evolve, placing less reliance on individual disciplines moving to a greater degree of integration within the workplace. IT developments have promised much in this respect but in reality have somewhat lagged behind the pace of change. One practical aspect of this is that while it is common practice to create an integrated development team to pursue opportunities, including subsurface, flow assurance, processing and financial disciplines, that team would be unlikely to have access to an integrated tool with which to work.
Addressing this issue is the concept of "Integrated Asset Modelling" or IAM. The idea behind IAM is simple - to create a single model for the entire asset, from geological interpretation through to sales contracts and taxation. The rationale behind this approach is equally simple. After the criteria for health, safety and the environment have been met, a single benchmark for the comparison of operational decisions must include measures of monetary value as well as reserve management indicators and capital utilization.
|File Size||434 KB||Number of Pages||8|