Deepwater Infill Drilling Evaluation Using Experimental Design: The Agbami Case Study
- Adeboye Adeyinka (Chevron) | Folarin Olatunde (Chevron) | Abiodun Bodunrin (Chevron)
- Document ID
- Society of Petroleum Engineers
- SPE Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, 31 July - 2 August, Lagos, Nigeria
- Publication Date
- Document Type
- Conference Paper
- 2017. Society of Petroleum Engineers
- 5 Reservoir Desciption & Dynamics, 7 Management and Information, 5.6 Formation Evaluation & Management, 5.6.9 Production Forecasting, 7.3 Strategic Planning and Management, 7.3.3 Project Management
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The Agbami field is one of the largest producing deep-water assets in Nigeria. It was discovered in 1998 and put on stream in 2008 with the field development staggered into three phases. Adopting a phased approach has eased the burden of project management and allowed the Asset team incorporate the key learnings of each phase into the subsequent phases while reducing uncertainty and improving decision making to derive maximum value from the asset.
With the third phase of the field development approaching its later stages, it became necessary for the Asset team to take a second look at the wealth of data that had been gathered in the 7 years of production and re-evaluate the subsurface understanding with a view to identifying by-passed or un-swept oil that could potentially increase recovery from the reservoirs.
Uncertainties are inherent in every project and the Agbami project is no exception being a major capital project with its fair share of uncertainties. This paper focuses on how the Asset team tackled the challenge of generating a meaningful and reliable production forecast for the infill drilling opportunities to drive decision making while accommodating operational uncertainties, equipment delivery scheduling and subsurface uncertainties in the reference case as the Agbami Phase 3 project was still on-going as at the time of this work. This was done through the application of design of experiments to generate low, mid and high realizations of the reference case which was then carried forward into the incremental case.
This paper discusses the process utilized in establishing a range for these uncertainties from historical data and how this was integrated (using experimental design) to generate probabilistic forecasts for the infill drilling opportunities to drive decisions that would maximize the value of the Agbami field for all stakeholders.
|File Size||2 MB||Number of Pages||14|
Adepoju, O., Odusote, O. and Novakovic, D.: "Improving Production Forecasts Through the Application of Design of Experiments and Probabilistic Analysis: A Case Study from Chevron, Nigeria," SPE 128605 presented at Nigeria Annual International Conference and Exhibition, Abuja, Nigeria, 3-5 August 2009.