Uncertainty Modeling and Fatigue Reliability Assessment of Concrete Gravity Based Foundation for Offshore Wind Turbines
- Joey Velarde (COWI A/S) | Claus Kramhøft (COWI A/S) | John Dalsgaard Sørensen (Aalborg University)
- Document ID
- International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
- The 28th International Ocean and Polar Engineering Conference, 10-15 June, Sapporo, Japan
- Publication Date
- Document Type
- Conference Paper
- 2018. International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers
- Monte Carlo, reliability, uncertainty, gravity based foundation, probabilistic design, offshore wind energy, fatigue
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Evaluation of the fatigue limit state (FLS) for offshore wind turbine foundations is normally based on deterministic design approaches, where partial safety factors are used to account for load and resistance uncertainties. In this paper, the propagation of uncertainties related to structural, environmental and fatigue damage model parameters is evaluated by performing Monte Carlo fatigue simulations of a reference Gravity Based Foundation (GBF) supporting a 5 MW offshore wind turbine. A linear model for concrete fatigue damage is formulated based on the S-N approach, and fatigue structural reliability is evaluated using the FORM technique. Results indicate that the uncertainty related to wind turbulence intensity has the highest influence on fatigue loads during power production. Adopting a probabilistic damage model for concrete also increases the fatigue damage standard deviation by 60% and 85% for structures in water and in air, respectively. In addition, the assumption on Miner’s rule uncertainty has a large influence on the structural reliability. A reduction of this uncertainty from Δcov=0.40 to Δcov=0.30 could increase the annual reliability index by 22%.
In the detailed design of offshore wind turbine (OWT) foundations, the structure has to be evaluated for fatigue to ensure that the structure withstands environmental loads throughout its intended design life (typically 25 years). Current design standards are based on deterministic approaches, where partial safety factors are used to account for uncertainties in loads and resistance models. This approach, however, can either be over conservative or unsafe. It has been shown that target reliability level for OWTs can be lowered compared to other fixed offshore structures due to lower risks and consequences related to failure (Marquez-Dominguez & Sorensen, 2012). Moreover, uncertainties related to environmental inputs, which affect reliability assessments, are site-specific. To achieve more robust and cost-effective solutions, relevant sources of uncertainties have to be accounted for when performing reliability analyses and calibration of safety factors.
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